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Post by kennn on Dec 19, 2020 17:55:49 GMT -6
I am looking into the member list because I want to predict the future of RCBasic.  rcbasic.freeforums.net/members?dir=asc&sort=registered_onThis official forum was founded on Aug 14, 2015(1955 days ago). Only 41 persons registered at this official forum within about 5 years?! Of course this is not ideal.  1955/41 = One person registered per 47.68 days on average |
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Post by rosy on Dec 20, 2020 5:10:04 GMT -6
Now, after the colors change, people will flow in an avalanche ...
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Post by kennn on Dec 20, 2020 9:31:15 GMT -6
Now, after the colors change, people will flow in an avalanche ... You think that the new theme will cause a serious problem? Please feel confident about this dark theme and the future of RCBasic. Meanwhile, further analysis of the member list: ( rcbasic.freeforums.net/members?dir=asc&sort=registered_on ) Year
| Qty. of Registration
| | 2015 | 3
| | 2016 | 11 | | 2017 | 1 | | 2018 | 10 | | 2019 | 7
| | 2020 | 9 |
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Post by johnno56 on Dec 20, 2020 15:27:04 GMT -6
Kennn,
If you go to that link and click on the title of the column 'posts' (maybe again to sort in smallest to largest number of posts)... Almost two thirds of the list has had no more that 2 posts. Then check the "last online" of each member. Some are recent but most have not posted again from between 1 and 5 years. Of the 42 registered members only 20 have been 'active' throughout 2020.
I seriously doubt that the change of theme will attract new members. Hmm... They would have to be "here" to appreciate the changes... lol Do not get me wrong... Themes are a good part of keeping the website 'fresh'... My opinion... No. I do not think themes (new or old) will cause serious problems.
"The future of RCBasic". I think that 'every' creator of a computer language would love to have a crystal ball that could answer that question for each respective language.... I am reminded of our own Weather Bureau and how they can display the weather for the next 7 days... Crystal ball? Nope. Based on fact. Taking into account the weather conditions of location to the West of Melbourne; there current statistics etc, They can 'predict' a fairly accurate 'picture' of what the weather pattern would look like for the coming week.
This kind of model works for most industries.
Based on RCBasic's statistics (number of active members and annual registrations are a good place to start), do you think we could 'predict' better or worse for 2021?
Like the weather, many factors are required - the more the better - to make an accurate 'prediction'. Weather forecasting is important because everyone is effected by weather and most people want to 'know'.
Let's consider some "factors" shall we?
Programming languages in general: Most are high-level because programs need to be powerful and fast to produce the most profit. Similar could be said for the gaming community. If a professional programmer were to list the top 5 'languages' to be used... Basic would probably not be on that list... This conclusion would imply that Basic would be used by 'hobbyists' or a niche market. Many Basic's have been around for a long time and have accumulated a lot of followers. A lot of younger 'programmers' are looking for 'point and click' type applications to produce their games. (rapid development - advantages and dis-advantages - another story).
Time: Most people are "time-poor". We now have a generation that, in general, want it "now" and expects "immediate" results. So, using the 'fastest' method of game creation is preferred.
Operating systems: Windows is still the most popular but most programmers have to consider 'cross-platforming'. After all, why settle for 95% of the market, when you han have it all? lol
Cost: The community, as a whole, would view open source as, "If it doesn't cost you anything then it can't be very good.". Minds are being changed... but slowly.
Support: Always comes back to this... Unless you have the support (ie: Members; Documentation; Examples etc), regardless of how good the programming language is, people will find the language too time consuming to learn and move on...
So... After all that... Can we 'predict' the future of RCBasic? Yes. Yes you can. The future is not written in stone. The future is what you make of it.
Code on.
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Post by aurel on Dec 20, 2020 16:50:24 GMT -6
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Post by johnno56 on Dec 20, 2020 18:51:37 GMT -6
Oh. If you think THAT answer was long... you should see my shopping list!! lol
The future can be scary. Examining the steps we've taken in the past, assuming that we have learned from our mistakes, gives us the confidence to take another step forward... Of course, for me, without my glasses my next step can be quite funny... if it didn't hurt so much... lol
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Post by aurel on Dec 21, 2020 8:14:26 GMT -6
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Post by johnno56 on Dec 21, 2020 13:30:02 GMT -6
Agreed.
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Post by kennn on Dec 22, 2020 10:21:16 GMT -6
johnno56, Of the 42 registered members only 20 have been 'active' throughout 2020. <---- Does this mean that RCBasic cannot keep the 22 members satisfied? The qty. of registration will be about 10 in 2021. Year
| Qty. of Registration
| | 2015 | 3
| | 2016 | 11 | | 2017 | 1 | | 2018 | 10 | | 2019 | 7
| | 2020 | 10
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This conclusion would imply that Basic would be used by 'hobbyists' or a niche market. <---- However, this so-called niche market is still large. Why not check other successful BASIC dialect first?? AppGameKit is a BASIC dialect for game programming. Their sub-forum: forum.thegamecreators.com/board/41 I don't expect that AppGameKit's user base will be as large as GameMaker in the future. In the meantime, I also don't expect that RCBasic's user base will be as large as AppGameKit. But can RCBasic's user base be as large as BlitzMaxNg or CerberusX in the future? Really possible. The future or fate will be mainly decided by the development direction and development speed of RCBasic. aurel,All energy is not wasted. All discussion topics may inspire a lot of people. 
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Post by aurel on Dec 22, 2020 12:45:55 GMT -6
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Post by johnno56 on Dec 22, 2020 13:02:15 GMT -6
"Does this mean that RCBasic cannot keep the 22 members satisfied?"
No. For whatever reason 22 members have not been active within the last year. Most Basics, although designed for "beginners", but compared with other rapid development packages, cannot hope to compete. As I stated earlier, 'They want it now. They want immediate results.' But you may be correct in the sense that, what we currently have, may not 'keep' them interested. Only one way to fix that... Create 'more' relevant content.
"AppGameKit. GameMaker. BlitzMax and CererusX. Can RCBasic user base be as large?"
Most of these applications are designed for rapid development. In regards to that, RCBasic; QB64; SDLBasic cannot compete. Can RCBasic membership be as large? Yes. Yes it can. But not in its current format. (No insult intended n00b) Basics that require 'everything' to be hard coded are designed for beginners to learn the principle of of coding. Once the principles have been mastered, it is by nature, that one advances to the 'next level' of programming.
"All energy is not wasted."
Normally I would agree. From a programmers point of view, using a fully coded Basic as opposed to a rapid development tool, could be seen as a waste of energy.
I like using Game Maker for several reasons. But, when it comes down to preferences, I always return to Basic. Is it a waste of energy? Maybe so. But, in the end, it's 'my' energy to 'waste'. I know, the primary point was in reference to 'long answers'. At my age I find it important to get information 'out there' before I no long have the time to do so...
Aurel could be right... My answers do tend to be 'lengthy'... lol What's that phrase, "The devil is in the details."
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Post by johnno56 on Dec 22, 2020 13:28:23 GMT -6
Aurel,
Getting RCBasic (or any other Basic) 'out there' is critical to the continuation of any Basic. A lot of companies spend a 'small fortune' to get there 'brand' known by the public... The old phrase, "Out of sight. Out of mind.", is quite true. If any Basic is not advertised, eventually, it too will fade into obscurity...
I agree. RCBasic needs to be published in as many places as is possible. Good point.
J
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Post by Tomaaz on Dec 23, 2020 7:11:21 GMT -6
The whole "making BASIC popular again" discussion is completely detached from reality. It's like "let's make VHS popular again" or "let's make analog photography popular again". It's not gonna happen. Yes, you can still watch movies on your VHS, you can still take photos on film, but in general the world has moved on. There are better, cheaper, and easier to use technologies around. The same applies to BASIC. If someone believes that BASIC can somehow make a come back to serious programming world then they simply delude themselves.
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Post by johnno56 on Dec 23, 2020 7:42:17 GMT -6
Tomaaz,
I have used Basic for most of my life mainly because I enjoy using it so much. I will continue to promote it in the hope that someone else can learn to enjoy it as well. In doing so, if I am "detached from reality" or even "deluded", then I am guilty as charged. You are entitled to your opinion. An opinion that I do not share. But you are entitled. I will be looking forward to you repeating your opinion on all the other "Basic" sites I support assuming you still feel as strongly towards 'Basic'. I enjoy using Basic. We enjoy using Basic. You are welcome to join us. We 'detached and deluded' basic users need all the help we can get...
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Post by Tomaaz on Dec 23, 2020 8:30:08 GMT -6
It's not a matter of my opinion. That's the problem with you. For you everything is someone's opinion. It isn't. There are also facts, probability, predictions etc. VHS, analog photography (and even digital compact cameras), CRT monitors, floppy discs, BASIC they all have been replaced by newer technology and there is no way back. Doesn't matter what we think about it and what mine or your opinion is. You like coding in BASIC? Fine. But it will not become a mainstream language again. Like people will not start using small black and white TVs again or make family movies on 8mm film stock.
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